Government Scorecards

The first term stabilized and expanded the economy, but has not produced the productivity shift needed to change living standards. Growth remains tourism-heavy, wages have lagged household costs, and underlying potential growth is still estimated around 1.5 percent without deeper reform.

The government inherited a dangerous fiscal position and has materially improved it, including a third consecutive primary surplus. Debt is still high, and contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships remain a risk as government takes a larger role in energy.

National visitor numbers are hard to argue with, and the gains were not limited to Nassau. Some Grand Bahama investment figures are announced or committed rather than completed, which still matters, but attracting capital and rebuilding tourism momentum is a genuine strength.

Inflation has cooled, and government has raised the minimum wage, cut VAT on some foods, and expanded price controls. The existing price level for food, housing, insurance, transport, and energy remains unaffordable for many households. Low measured inflation and a high cost of living can both be true.

Murders fell sharply in 2025, and police reported reductions in major crime across New Providence, Grand Bahama, and the Family Islands. One strong year does not yet prove a structural change. If 2026 and 2027 stay near or below 2025 levels, the grade should rise.

Public housing construction and rent-to-own programmes have restarted, which deserves recognition. The national affordability gap is still much larger than the delivery so far. This is progress from a weak starting point, not a solved problem.

There is significant capital investment, including a new Grand Bahama health campus and a major New Providence hospital plan. Service today still lags the renderings: Rand Memorial has had infrastructure failures, and Princess Margaret Hospital remains under pressure. The grade can move quickly if facilities open, are staffed, and cut waiting times.

Delivery is island-dependent. Private recovery on Abaco has outpaced public reconstruction, while Grand Bahama’s airport and Lucayan projects remain the tests of whether announcements become operating assets. Grade projects when the doors open, not at groundbreaking.

Grand Bahama’s GBPC takeover and Equity Rate Adjustment is the strongest energy intervention of the administration, with estimated residential bill cuts of 35 to 49 percent. New Providence’s summer 2026 outages are a serious service failure in the capital. Abaco still faces weak reliability. The national grade hides three different grids.

The gap is not a shortage of plans. It is the distance from announcement to financing, groundbreaking, completion, and reliable operation. “Delivered or in progress” is not the same as delivered. The IMF has also warned that heavier use of PPPs needs stronger procurement, reporting, and fiscal-risk controls.